FRANKFURT/LONDON: BMW is anticipating a reduction in U.S. car tariffs starting in July, based on ongoing discussions with U.S. officials, marking a more positive outlook than many of its competitors amid ongoing trade tensions.
Despite the hopeful forecast, BMW warned that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump would still have a “notable” impact on its second-quarter results. However, executives declined to quantify the expected financial hit during a call this week with analysts.
“We are noticing that things are moving, developing, and being negotiated everywhere,” said CFO Walter Mertl. “Accordingly, our reading, based on all the networks that we have at our disposal, is that we assume that something will change in July.”
BMW’s largest plant globally is in South Carolina, making it the top U.S. auto exporter by value. CEO Oliver Zipse emphasized that the company’s significant economic contribution—supporting around 43,000 jobs and generating US$26 billion annually—could be a key factor in tariff negotiations.
“We can already see that this will not be ignored, our large footprint,” Zipse said without elaborating further.
While rivals such as Mercedes-Benz, Ford, and Stellantis have pulled their 2025 forecasts, BMW is maintaining its outlook, which it issued in March. The company expects earnings before tax to remain in line with 2024 levels and an operating margin in its automotive business of five percent to seven percent.
BMW added that it expects “some of the tariff increases to be temporary, with reductions from July 2025.”
The company’s shares rose 1.3 percent at 1011 GMT after BMW’s auto unit reported first-quarter earnings before interest and tax of 2.02 billion euros ($2.3 billion), surpassing the 1.85 billion euros forecast in a Reuters poll.
Analysts noted that BMW’s decision to stick with its 2025 guidance was well-received by the market. “Part of this is predicated on some tariffs going into reverse from July onwards,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
BMW cautioned, however, that its business performance in 2025 could still be affected if tariffs are extended or supply chain disruptions worsen.