HONG KONG: China’s economy grew 4.8 percent year-on-year in the July–September quarter, the slowest pace in a year, as U.S. tariffs, weak property sales, and faltering consumer demand weighed on activity and tested Beijing’s efforts to stabilize growth.

The latest reading, released on October 20 by the National Bureau of Statistics, marked a slowdown from 5.2 percent growth in the previous quarter and was the weakest since the third quarter of 2024. For the first nine months of 2025, the economy expanded 5.2 percent, keeping it roughly on track to meet the government’s “around five percent” full-year target.

The deceleration highlights mounting pressure from trade tensions with Washington and domestic economic fragility, even as strong exports to non-U.S. markets provided a partial cushion.

Despite President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs on Chinese imports, overall exports grew 8.3 percent year-on-year in September, their fastest in six months. But shipments to the United States plunged 27 percent, reflecting the strain of escalating trade frictions.

China’s electric vehicle exports doubled in September, and domestic passenger car sales rose 11.2 percent from a year earlier, though slower than the 15 percent pace in August. The government has recently sought to rein in price wars in autos and other sectors as manufacturers grapple with overcapacity.

The property crisis continues to cast a long shadow. Residential property sales by value fell 7.6 percent in January–September from a year earlier, deepening a sector slump that has eroded household wealth and consumer confidence. S&P Global Ratings expects new home sales to decline another 8 percent in 2025 and up to seven percent in 2026.

Elsewhere, industrial output rose 6.5 percent in September — the fastest since June — but retail sales growth slowed to three percent, underlining weak household spending. Fixed-asset investment slipped 0.5 percent, while both consumer and wholesale prices continued to fall, underscoring deflationary pressure.

The World Bank forecasts full-year growth of 4.8 percent, broadly in line with the current pace.

A spokesperson for China’s statistics bureau said the economy retained a “solid foundation” to meet its target but pointed to “external complications” such as trade friction and protectionist measures abroad.

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Analysts said earlier resilience from the first half of the year may give Beijing some leeway, but the momentum is fading. “China’s stronger growth in the first half provides some buffer,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank.

However, spending during the eight-day Golden Week holiday in October was “mildly disappointing,” reflecting tepid confidence, according to Morningstar analysts.

Economists expect further policy support before year-end, including a potential rate cut by the People’s Bank of China to spur consumption and investment.

“The impact from earlier stimulus is weakening,” Song said. “We are looking to see if there will be further measures to support consumption and the property market.”

Chinese stocks rose Monday, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.3 percent and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.5 percent.