WASHINGTON, D.C.: Wall Street traders, Federal Reserve officials, and economists alike were left in the dark Friday morning when the Labor Department’s closely watched monthly jobs report failed to appear, a casualty of the federal government shutdown.
The missing data comes at a fragile moment for the U.S. economy, with hiring nearly stalled and policymakers eager for fresh signs of momentum. Without it, investors and central bankers must rely on imperfect private estimates to gauge whether the job market is stabilizing or slipping further.
It’s the first time since the 2013 shutdown that the monthly employment report has been delayed. During the 2018-2019 closure, the Labor Department remained funded. Officials said September’s jobs data will be released once the government reopens.
If the shutdown continues beyond next week, other major reports, including the next inflation release due October 15, could also be postponed.
The White House blamed Senate Democrats for the impasse, while Democrats faulted President Donald Trump’s administration for the breakdown in negotiations.
“Businesses, families, policymakers, markets, and even the Federal Reserve are flying blind at a key juncture in America’s economic resurgence because the Democrats’ government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.
Ironically, Trump has often disparaged government labor statistics when they have shown weak results. In August, he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after job gains were revised sharply lower.
For now, economists are piecing together a picture from private data that suggests a stagnant labor market — few new hires and few layoffs.
Payroll processor ADP said that private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September, with losses in construction, manufacturing, financial services, hospitality, and professional sectors. Health care, education, and information technology were the only industries to add staff.
“We’ve seen a significant decline in hiring momentum throughout the year,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “This is consistent with a low-hire — even a no-hire — and low-fire economy.”
Federal Reserve officials say their jobs become harder without official data. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said his team relies on Labor Department figures to gauge economic turning points.
“It’s still the best data — the BLS numbers are the best labor market numbers in the world,” Goolsbee told The Associated Press. “And when we don’t have them, we suffer.”
The Chicago Fed has developed its own interim measures using a blend of public and private indicators. Its latest reading estimated unemployment at 4.3 percent in September, unchanged from August and still historically low.
While employment proxies exist, economists note that inflation data is more complex to substitute. Goolsbee said recent tariff-driven price increases have pushed up goods costs, and he’s watching whether services inflation continues to climb — a key signal that price pressures are spreading.
“That makes the government shutdown and the lack of BLS data that much more concerning,” he said.
A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday showed the services sector — which covers roughly 90 percent of the economy — was flat in September, with hiring declining for a fourth straight month.