HANOI, Vietnam: Communist Party chief To Lam declared the start of “a new era of development” at the party’s central school late last year, unveiling plans for what officials say could be Vietnam’s most sweeping economic overhaul in decades.

The government aims to achieve high-income status by 2045 and join Asia’s “tiger economies,” but it faces hurdles, including structural reforms, an aging population, climate risks, and entrenched bureaucracy.

Vietnam’s economy has surged since 1990, with per-capita income rising from about US$1,200 to $16,385, adjusted for local prices. The export-led boom has built modern infrastructure and lifted millions from poverty, but growth is slowing as cheap labor advantages fade. Officials are pushing to expand private industry, boost social protections, and invest in green technology, even as climate change and trade pressures weigh on the outlook.

U.S.–China trade tensions have fueled foreign investment, making the U.S. Vietnam’s largest export market. In 2024, Vietnam ran a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S., prompting President Donald Trump to threaten a 46 percent tariff. The two sides agreed on a 20 percent levy, doubled for goods suspected of being rerouted from China.

Even before the tariff fight, Vietnam was rethinking its growth model to avoid the “middle-income trap,” when economies stall without major shifts. South Korea’s electronics, Taiwan’s semiconductors, and Singapore’s finance sectors each powered their transitions. Vietnam’s economy, more diverse than theirs at similar stages, will need multiple “big bets,” including chips, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and significant infrastructure such as a $67 billion high-speed rail linking Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

The country also aims to become a financial hub, planning special economic zones in Ho Chi Minh City and Danang with simplified regulations, tax breaks, and investor-friendly courts. Institutional reforms are underway: ministries are being merged, bureaucracies trimmed, and provinces consolidated to build stronger regional economies.

A key shift is the elevation of private enterprise. In May, the Communist Party passed Resolution 68, calling private firms the “most important force” in the economy. For decades, state-owned giants dominated, leaving local firms stuck in low-value supply-chain roles. The new policy offers easier loans for tech investments, priority in government contracts, and support for overseas expansion. By 2030, Vietnam hopes to produce at least 20 globally competitive private companies.

Climate change threatens all of this. Typhoon Yagi last year caused $1.6 billion in damage, cutting GDP by 0.15 percent. The World Bank warns that Vietnam could lose up to 14.5 percent of GDP annually by 2050 without decisive action. Some firms are already adapting: DEEP C Industrial Zones were redesigned for flood resilience after losing an investor over climate risks and stayed dry during Yagi’s floods.

Vietnam also faces a demographic crunch. Its “golden population” window will close by 2039, with the workforce peaking in 2042. An aging population could slow productivity and strain social services. The government is expanding preventive healthcare, gradually raising retirement ages, and seeking to draw more women into the formal workforce to sustain growth and promote “healthy aging.”

With reforms, investment, and climate resilience, Vietnam hopes its “new era” will deliver the prosperity its leaders promise.