MIAMI, Florida – Hurricane Dorian is expected to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, the National Hurricane Centre said Saturday afternoon.
Dorian is still however forecast to maintain hurricane-force winds as it moves across eastern Canada Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
At 2:00pm AST (1800 UTC) Saturday, the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 64.9 West.
Meantime in the Bahamas, which has borne most of the damage wreaked by Dorian, the death toll has reached 43, and is expected to go higher.
Search and rescue teams are still frantically working to locate more survivors, many of whom have been cut off by extensive flooding.
“We have been through this before, but not at this level of devastation,” Bahamas Security Minister Marvin Dames said Saturday. “These are very serious times and very sensitive times.”
He confirmed all the ports in the tiny island nation have reopened and the airport runway at Grand Bahama is back in operation.
UN agencies, the U.S. government, the British Royal Navy, American Airlines and Royal Caribbean Cruises, have have joined in the rescue and recovery operation, providing food, water, generators, roof tarps, diapers, flashlights and other supplies, while assisting evacuees, some of whom were being taken by cruise ships from Freeport to Florida.
Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general motion toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across central or eastern Nova Scotia Saturday afternoon or Saturday night, pass near or over Prince Edward Island, and then move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday.
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km).
NOAA buoy 44011 to the southwest of the center recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h).
A station at Baccarro Point, Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).
Tropical storm conditions should spread into the warning area in Maine during the next several hours, the National Hurricane Centre said. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning Saturday afternoon, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by Saturday night.
Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading into southwestern Nova Scotia, and these conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later Saturday and Saturday night.
Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia, the center said.
Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday night: Far eastern Maine…1 to 3 inches. Nova Scotia…3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island…2 to 4 inches. Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec…1 to 2 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding, the center warned.
Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the National Hurricane Centre said.
Thousands of people are still missing in the Bahamas after the then Category 5 storm brought with it a storm surge of 18 to 23 feet (5.5 to seven metres). 76,000 people are believed to be homeless, in need of assistance.
The extreme level of destruction in the country has been attributed by UN weather experts at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to the fact that Dorian “remained stationary, thus exacerbating the impacts of the hazards: wind, rain, waves and storm surge.”
In a statement on Friday, UN Migration Agency, IOM, said that “only minimal information” was available from the affected islands and that more detailed assessments of people’s requirements are urgently needed.
(Photo credit: U.S. Coast Guard District 7 in Treasure Cay, Bahamas).