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WASHINGTON, U.S. – The U.S. President Donald Trump, on Tuesday, issued a stern and direct warning to the Syrian President Bashar Assad and his allies Iran and Russia against launching an attack on Syria’s last rebel-held enclave, Idlib province. 

Claiming that any possible attack on the province would be a “grave humanitarian mistake,” Trump warned Assad against launching a “reckless attack” in the area.

Battle for survival

War monitors, activists and war monitors have pointed out that in the seven years of war in Syria – the northern province of Idlib has become one of the world’s densest enclaves of internally displaced people.

The province, which is on the border with Turkey, currently houses an estimated 3 million people and half of them are civilians who have been displaced by the raging war in other parts of the country over the years.

A refuge for displaced Syrians, extremists and rebels alike – Idlib is currently held by various groups of Assad opposers, rebels and powerful jihadist forces.

One part of Idlib is held by the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham group that the U.S. links to al-Qaeda, while another part of the province is claimed by anti-Assad rebels backed by Turkey.

The Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham group (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant/Levant Liberation Committee/HTS) is an active Salafist jihadist militant group that was formed in January 2017.

The group was formed as a merger between various rebel and extremist groups including the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham group (al-Nusra Front), the Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna group, Liwa al-Haqq and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki movement. 

The HTS group is made up of several other rebel and extremist groups and individuals. 

With the Syrian government and its close allies, Russia and Iran managing to reclaim all parts of the country that were previously held by rebels and extremist organizations – Idlib is now the last major rebel bastion in the war-torn country.

Assad, backed by his own strong military and a powerful ally – Russia, has vowed to reclaim Idlib – whatever it takes. 

For weeks now, Assad has been laying out battle plans to reclaim Idlib which would mark his final victory in efforts to put down the rebellion that broke out seven years back.

The massive pro-government assault has been planned as a phased offensive backed by Russian airstrikes – a prospect that has left the roughly 1.5 million civilians in Idlib in the crosshairs of an imminent bloody battle.

Last month, Russia said that it was in contact with rebel groups in Idlib to discuss the possibility of a negotiated surrender.

After talks collapsed, Russia proceeded with plans for the complex assault and announced its biggest naval build-up in the Mediterranean since the start of its intervention in the Syrian conflict in 2015.

To back Assad’s forces and prevent a U.S. strike on the country, Russia has also deployed its biggest ever warships to the Mediterranean Sea.

The U.S. has threatened to strike the Syrian forces if the “Syrian regime uses chemical weapons.”

However, Russia has blamed the U.S. for attempting to destabilize the war-torn region and has asked Washington to stay out of the war. 

Yet, the United Nations has warned that the battle for Idlib could spark a humanitarian catastrophe on a scale not yet seen in Syria’s seven-year-old conflict.

It has stated that the Idlib offensive could displace over 700,000 people.

All eyes on Assad

Even though Trump has sought better ties with Russia since taking office, he has failed to convince Vladimir Putin to end military and diplomatic support offered to Assad. 

With battle plans continuing unimpeded in Syria, reports in the U.S. revealed that the Trump administration has put together an initial list of Syrian chemical weapons facilities that could be targeted with airstrikes if Syria were to launch a new chemical weapon attack.

On Tuesday morning, taking to Twitter, Trump directly warned Syria, Russia and Iran and wrote, “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!”

Further, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley too warned against an attack.

She tweeted, “All eyes on the actions of Assad, Russia, and Iran in Idlib. #NoChemicalWeapons”

The U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo tweeted, “Sergey Lavrov is defending Syrian and Russian assault on #Idlib. The Russians and Assad agreed not to permit this. The U.S sees this as an escalation of an already dangerous conflict.”

In a subsequent tweet, Pompeo wrote, “The 3 million Syrians, who have already been forced out of their homes and are now in #Idlib, will suffer from this aggression. Not good. The world is watching.”

In a separate warning, France said that there could be “disastrous consequences” if Syrian forces and their allies launch an assault on the Idlib.

Meanwhile, Iran has discussed the Idlib offensive with Syria and Russia and has called for militants to be “cleaned out” of Idlib.

Further, Turkey too has cooperated with Russia and Iran on talks over Syria and has stationed troops in the Idlib region on an observation mission.

Russia dismissed Trump’s warning to Syria on Tuesday and argued that Idlib is a “nest of terrorism.”

In response to Trump’s tweet, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a statement saying, “Just to speak out with some warnings, without taking into account the very dangerous, negative potential for the whole situation in Syria, is probably not a full, comprehensive approach.”

He added, “The presence of militants in Idlib was undermining the Syrian peace process and making the region a base for attacks on Russian forces in Syria.”

Peskov said, “A fairly large group of terrorists has settled there and of course this leads to a general destabilization of the situation. It undermines attempts to bring the situation onto the track of a political-diplomatic settlement. We know that Syria’s armed forces are preparing to resolve this problem.”

Idlib assault begins

On Tuesday afternoon, amid a war of words between Russia and the U.S., a Syrian rebel and a war monitor said that after weeks of hiatus, Russian airstrikes had resumed against insurgents in Idlib province.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in its update on Tuesday that pro-Syrian government forces have maintained an aerial bombardment and shelling against rebels in Idlib, but Russian air raids had ceased in and around Idlib on August 15. 

Russian air strikes reported by the Syrian Observatory on Tuesday were confirmed by rebel groups that took to social media and said that the strikes were in the countryside near Jisr al-Shughour on the western edge of the rebels’ northwestern territory.

Activists in areas around Jisr al-Shughour said that their village was hit by several airstrikes and added that at least two people were killed in the raids.

Meanwhile, a report in Al Jazeera said that at least 23 raids have been witnessed in the area since Tuesday morning.