CANBERRA, Australia – It was just as astonishing an end to the week, as to the start. It was ugly and brutal. Cabinet ministers that backed their prime minister on Tuesday, opposed him on Wednesday.
One, Mitch Fifeld, the Communications Minister, supported Malcolm Turnbull on Tuesday, then backed his opponent Peter Dutton against Turnbull on Thursday. Then on Friday he switched his support to Treasurer Scott Morrison, against Dutton.
The knives were out from late last week. Turnbull had to go. Dutton was the man to lead the Coalition to the next election. Just months ago he polled 3% as preferred prime minister. The Australian public’s view however was never a consideration. A Roy Morgan poll earlier in the week, sampling 1,288 people, revealed that Turnbull remained the preferred prime minister. He was well ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Shorten was preferred over Dutton.
In the end, the leadership spill (the second one), came on Friday. The spill was supported by 45 votes to 40. If just 3 Liberal party politicians had supported Turnbull he would still be prime minister. An extraordinary result.
The leadership ballot that followed was equally extraordinary. Julie Bishop was cut in the first round, then Morrison defeated Dutton 45 votes to 40, the exact same result as the vote to spill the leadership. It was also narrower than the 45 to 38 vote Turnbull won on Tuesday. But there won’t be another leadership challenge says Dutton. He pledged “absolute loyalty” to Morrison to “make sure we win the election and we defeat Bill Shorten.” Of course Dutton pledged loyalty to Turnbull too, but that was last week.
Radio personalities, News Corp commentators and Tony Abbott supporters that were cheering on Dutton this week have been left empty-handed. It will be interesting to see if they dish out the same treatment to Morrison as they have done to Turnbull in the years since he toppled Abbott. Abbott meantime has noted “we have lost a prime minister but there is still a government to save.”
Turnbull has indicated he will quit parliament, forcing a by-election in his seat of Wentworth.
Morrison’s election, the removal of Turnbull, the downfall of Dutton, and the failure of Julie Bishop, who has lost the deputy leadership to Josh Frydenberg in the process, have left a bruised and battered Liberal party and government to recover from a series of rushed and rash manoeuvres, that have achieved nothing other than a major loss of public confidence. All this by a government that has a one-seat majority.
Both political parties in Australia run their leadership contests like a lottery or a free-for-all. There is no time for considered judgement, or campaigns to sound out other contenders. Morrison is now prime minister and yet he was not a candidate until 24 hours ago. Dutton was on the threshold of swiping the top job from Turnbull until Morrison joined the race. Julie Bishop was and is one of Australia’s most effective foreign ministers and a capable deputy leader. She has now lost-out. Turnbull has been flicked just as the Coalition was gaining momentum in the economy, and even the polls. A change from Turnbull is not likely to make the slightest difference in the Coalition’s chances of winning the next election.
The week’s events however almost certainly will make Bill Shorten’s slide into the lodge much easier.